Trend Duration Forecast

Trend Duration Forecast

It utilizes a Hull Moving Average (HMA) to detect trend direction and statistically forecasts the probable duration of the current move based on historical market behavior.

Key Features

1. Smooth Trend Detection: Uses the Hull Moving Average (HMA) to filter noise while minimizing lag, providing clean Bullish/Bearish signals.

2. Real-Time Duration Counter: Displays a dynamic label at the start of the current trend showing the  "Real Length" (number of bars the trend has been active).

3. Probabilistic Forecasting: Automatically calculates the average length of the last 

    trends. It projects a "Future Line" and a  "Probable Length" label, helping you estimate if the current trend has room to run or is nearing exhaustion.

4. Statistical Dashboard: A neat table in the bottom-right corner displays the duration of the last 10 Bullish and Bearish trends, along with their running averages.

5. Historical Markers: Leaves persistent labels and arrows on previous trends, allowing you to visually backtest how accurate the trend signals were in the past.

 Input Parameters

• Smoothing Length (Default: 50): The period for the Hull Moving Average. Higher values reduce noise but increase lag; lower values are more responsive.

• Trend Detection Sensitivity (Default: 3): The number of consecutive bars required to confirm a change in slope. A value of 3 prevents "fake-outs" in choppy markets.

• Trend Sample Size (Default: 10): The number of past trends stored to calculate the "Probable Length" average.

• Visual Settings: Customizable colors for Up/Down trends, text size, and history limits to optimize performance.

How to Use

This indicator is best used to answer the question:  "Is this trend just starting, or is it over-extended?"

1. Identifying Entry Points

• Buy Signal: The HMA line turns  Green (default). A "Trend Up" label appears with a Real Length of 0.

• Sell Signal: The HMA line turns  Orange/Red (default). A "Trend Down" label appears.

2. Managing Trades (The Forecast)

Look at the  "Probable Length" label projected to the right of the price:

• Early Trend: If the current "Real Length" (e.g., 15 bars) is significantly lower than the "Probable Length" (e.g., 40 bars), the trend may have strong continuation potential.

• Trend Exhaustion: If the "Real Length" exceeds the "Probable Length" average, the trend is statistically over-extended, and you should tighten stops or consider taking profits.

3. Using the Dashboard

• Check the table in the bottom-right corner.

• If the  Average Bullish Trend is 50 bars and the  Average Bearish Trend is only 10 bars, the market is in a strong uptrend regime. Focus on Buy signals and be cautious with Sell signals.

 Installation Instructions

1. Download the .mq5 file.

2. Place it in your MetaTrader 5  Indicators folder (File -> Open Data Folder -> MQL5 -> Indicators).

3. Attach to a chart (Works on all timeframes, though H1 and H4 are recommended for swing trading).